HVAC industry development opportunities
Published Time:
2025-07-08
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Abstract
The following are key opportunities for the future development of the HVAC industry, based on a comprehensive analysis of policy orientation, technological breakthroughs, and market growth:
🌱 I. Policy-Driven Opportunities
● Mandatory implementation of green buildings
◎ Starting in 2025, newly built residential buildings must meet "near-zero energy consumption" standards, creating a rigid demand for high-efficiency heat pumps, solar air conditioners, and geothermal heat pump systems, with a market size exceeding one trillion yuan.
◎ The renovation of 600,000 old residential communities is accelerating, leading to a concentrated outbreak of heating system upgrade needs and huge potential for energy-efficient equipment replacement.
● Incentives supporting the dual carbon goals
◎ The State Council requires that 100% of newly built urban buildings meet green standards by 2025, with air-source heat pump subsidies covering 20 million households, and the heat pump coefficient of performance (COP) exceeding 3.5 becoming mainstream.
◎ The EU is mandating the promotion of environmentally friendly refrigerants (A2L/A3 class), forcing enterprises to upgrade their technologies.
🔥 II. Technology-Intensive Growth Areas
● Data center liquid cooling technology scaling up
◎ By 2025, the proportion of liquid-cooled cabinets will exceed 50%, with PUE values required to drop below 1.25, making high-density cooling solutions a rigid need.
◎ Companies such as Huawei and Haiwu are promoting the "computing and electricity synergy" model, with liquid cooling systems achieving an annual growth rate of 30%.
● Temperature control needs in the new energy industry chain
◎ New energy vehicle thermal management is upgrading to "multi-modal precise control," with an increase in the penetration rate of refrigerant direct cooling + liquid cooling dual-channel technology (such as BYD's blade battery solution).
◎ Semiconductor clean rooms and new energy battery workshops require constant temperature and humidity (accuracy of ±0.1℃), with high-end temperature control equipment having a gross profit margin exceeding 40%.
● AI and the Internet of Things deeply empowering
◎ Predictive maintenance systems reduce equipment downtime costs by 30%, with Gree, Haier, etc., launching AI energy-saving algorithms (such as dynamic environment recognition and zoned air supply).
◎ Xiaomi's 29,999 yuan intelligent central air conditioning Pro series is disrupting the home decoration market, promoting the integration of smart home ecosystems.
🌐 III. Globalization and Emerging Market Opportunities
● Asia-Pacific market leading global growth
◎ By 2028, the global HVAC market will reach US$370 billion (8% annual growth), with China's smart air conditioner growth rate leading at 9.8%, and the Bangalore exhibition in India becoming a springboard for overseas expansion.
◎ Exports of heat pumps and cold chain equipment are surging, with the European energy crisis creating demand for alternatives to traditional boilers.
● Service model transformation breaking the deadlock
◎ Shifting from equipment sales to "maintenance + energy efficiency management" services, such as building window film cooling and high-pressure oxygen chamber equipment maintenance, to enhance the stickiness of the existing market.
◎ Hisense Hitachi's "7+2 strategy" focuses on seven major sub-segments such as medical and rail transit, diversifying profit growth points.
💎 Summary of High-Potential Tracks
Field | Core Opportunities | Policy/Technical Support |
Heat pump technology | Northern clean heating/industrial waste heat recovery | COP>3.5 technology maturity + 60% subsidy coverage rate |
Data center cooling | Liquid cooling solution scaling up (PUE<1.25) | The three major operators will mandatorily promote it in 2025 |
Automotive thermal management | Multi-modal temperature control system for new energy vehicles | Refrigerant direct cooling + AI predictive temperature control |
International layout | Southeast Asia infrastructure + European heat pump replacement | “Belt and Road” green energy cooperation |
Key breakthroughs required by enterprises Liquid cooling technology, cross-border application of heat pumps, AI energy efficiency optimization Three major directions, binding policy benefits and emerging scenarios for rapid positioning. Future opportunities in the industry, based on a comprehensive analysis of orientation and market:
I. Bonus Opportunities
1. Mandatory building standards
New residential buildings' "near-zero" standard creates demand for high-efficiency heat pumps, solar energy, and geothermal systems, exceeding one trillion yuan - 600,000 old communities are accelerating heating system upgrades, leading to a concentrated outbreak of equipment replacement needs.
2. Supporting dual carbon goals
In the urban development goals set by the State Council for 2025, it is clearly stated that the goal is to achieve a 100% penetration rate of heat pumps in urban areas. Against this backdrop, it is expected that 20 million households will adopt heat pump systems, and their thermal efficiency will successfully break through the 50% barrier, achieving a significant improvement.
The EU is actively promoting A2L/A3 refrigerants, aiming to promote technological innovation and upgrading.
🔥 II. Technological Growth
Data center liquid cooling scaling up
By 2025, the cabinet ratio will exceed the PUE value of 1.25, making high-density heat dissipation a necessity.
Huawei, Haiwu, etc., promote the "computing and electricity synergy" model, with liquid cooling systems achieving a growth rate of 30%.
New energy temperature control
New energy vehicle management is precisely upgraded to a modal level, with direct cooling and double penetration rates similar to BYD's battery solution. - Room and workshop require constant temperature ±1℃, high-end equipment gross profit margin 40%. 3. With the empowerment of the Internet of Things - Maintenance system downtime cost, energy saving like Gree and Haier, such as dynamic, air supply. - 29999 yuan smart Pro series home, promoting the ecosystem.
Insert rich components
🌐 Global market opportunities
1. Market-leading growth - HVAC annual growth), China's growth rate leads India's Rol out to sea board hot and cold chain equipment increase, crisis stimulates traditional demand
2. Mode situation - Sales shift to + energy services such as building cooling oxygen cabins, market potential
Haili "2 strategy" medical and other scenarios, diversified growth---
High summary field | **Policy/Support** |-------------------------||
Heat pump | Heating surplus | COP3. Mature 60% subsidy | | Cold solution P1. | Operator mandatory | Vehicle management New energy vehicle modal temperature | Media direct AI temperature | Layout Southeast Asia + Europe replacement "One Belt One Road" energy cooperation
Focus on liquid cooling and heating applications, efficiency optimization direction, policy dividend scenario card.
Reference links:
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